By mid-August, atmospheric indicators such as weakening of the trade winds and the northward movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone, indicated a renewed response in the atmosphere to the unfolding El Nino Event. Climate models continue to show further warming across the tropical Pacific Ocean, with temperatures exceeding El Nino thresholds expected before the end of September 2012.
El Nino conditions bring below average rainfall to most part of the Pacific, especially to those places west of the dateline and also to the south. From December 2012 to May 2013, we expect to see below average rainall and perhaps very much below average across the western Pacific.
Information from " Climate Change Matters", Issue 5, September 2012. SPREP's Climate Change Division Newsletter. Image from "Adapting to a Changing Climate" Micronesia Conservation Trust and The Nature Conservancy on behalf of the Micronesia Challenge.